Get the ultimate preview of the Madrid Derby 2025! Analyze lineups, injuries, key players, and score predictions for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid in this La Liga showdown.

Lineups – Tactical Breakdown:

Real Madrid (4-3-3):

• Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois
• Defenders: Lucas Vázquez (RB), Raúl Asencio (CB), Aurélien Tchouaméni (CB), Fran García (LB)
• Midfielders: Federico Valverde, Dani Ceballos, Jude Bellingham
• Forwards: Rodrygo, Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior

Atletico Madrid (4-4-2):

• Goalkeeper: Jan Oblak
• Defenders: Marcos Llorente (RB), José Giménez (CB), César Azpilicueta (CB), Javi Galán (LB)
• Midfielders: Rodrigo De Paul, Koke, Pablo Barrios, Samuel Lino
• Forwards: Antoine Griezmann, Julián Álvarez

Why It Matters: Real Madrid’s attacking trio (Mbappé, Vinícius, Rodrygo) aimed to burn Atletico’s defense.

Injury Crisis – Who’s Missing?

Real Madrid:

• Out: Antonio Rüdiger (thigh), Dani Carvajal (knee), Éder Militão (knee), David Alaba (muscle).
• Impact: Midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni and academy player Raúl Asencio started as center-backs, creating a defensive vulnerability.

Atletico Madrid:

• Out: Robin Le Normand (suspended).
• Impact: Atletico retained their defensive solidity with Giménez and Azpilicueta, boosting their chances of a clean sheet.

Match Analysis – Strengths vs Weaknesses:

Real Madrid’s Edge:

• Home Advantage: Atletico can’t win Real Madrid home venue untill 2016-2025
• Attacking Firepower: Mbappé and Vinícius combined for 35 goals this season.

Atletico’s Counter:

• Defensive Mastery: Best defensive record in La Liga (14 goals conceded in 22 games).
• Midfield Control: De Paul and Koke dominated possession in recent matches.

• Key Weaknesses:

• Real Madrid’s makeshift defense struggled against pace.
• Atletico’s over-reliance on Griezmann for creativity.

Key Players to Watch:

1. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): His speed and finishing could dismantle Atletico’s defense.
2. Antoine Griezmann (Atletico): The creative engine with 12 goals and 8 assists this season.
3. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid): Midfield dominance and late runs into the box.

Winning Probability – Who Holds the Edge?

Team Win Probability Key Factor ;
Real Madrid 55% Home advantage + attacking trio
Atletico 35% Defensive discipline + Griezmann

Draw Probability – Why a Stalemate is Likely:

• Defensive Tactics: Atletico’s low-block strategy often forces tight games.

---

Correct Score Predictions:

1. Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico: 25% probability (Home dominance + Mbappé magic).
2. 1-1 Draw: 20% probability (Atletico’s defense vs Real’s attack).
3. 2-2 Draw: 15% probability (End-to-end action). *Final conclusion :
   The Madrid Derby 2025 delivered drama, with Real Madrid’s attacking flair clashing against Atletico’s defensive grit. Given these factors, a 2-1 win for Real Madrid seems the most likely outcome

Source :https://www.laliga.com/en-GB